Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting acute kidney injury after orthotopic liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: We aim to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting severe acute kidney injury (AKI) after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). METHODS: A total of 576 patients who received OLT in our center were enrolled. They were assigned to the development and validation cohort according to the time of inclusion. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression using the forward variable selection routine were applied to find risk factors for post-OLT severe AKI. Based on the results of multivariable analysis, a nomogram was developed and validated. Patients were followed up to assess the long-term mortality and development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). RESULTS: Overall, 35.9% of patients were diagnosed with severe AKI. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that recipients' BMI (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17, p = 0.012), hypertension (OR 2.32, 95% CI 1.22-4.45, p = 0.010), preoperative serum creatine (sCr) (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97, p < 0.001), and intraoperative fresh frozen plasm (FFP) transfusion (OR for each 1000 ml increase 1.34, 95% CI 1.03-1.75, p = 0.031) were independent risk factors for post-OLT severe AKI. They were all incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.73 (p < 0.05) and 0.81 (p < 0.05) in the development and validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated the predicted probabilities of severe AKI agreed with the observed probabilities (p > 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients in the high-risk group stratified by the nomogram suffered significantly poorer long-term survival than the low-risk group (HR 1.92, p < 0.01). The cumulative risk of CKD was higher in the severe AKI group than no severe AKI group after competitive risk analysis (HR 1.48, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: With excellent predictive abilities, the nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to identify patients at high risk for severe AKI and poor long-term prognosis after OLT.

Elevated serum uric acid and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies have shown inconsistent results about the association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and mortality in hemodialysis patients. We performed this meta-analysis to determine whether higher SUA values comprised a risk factor of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane library were searched up to August 31, 2020 for the longitudinal studies that investigated the association between the elevated SUA and cardiovascular or all-cause mortality risk in maintenance hemodialysis patients. Pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model. We included 10 studies with an overall sample of 264,571 patients with hemodialysis in this meta-analysis. Patients with the highest SUA were associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.87) compared with patients with the lowest SUA after adjustment for potential confounders in a random effects model. Moreover, for each increase of 1 mg/dl of SUA, the overall risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality decreased by 6% and 9%, respectively (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99; HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.89-0.94). CONCLUSION: Elevated SUA levels are strongly and independently associated with lower risk of cardiovascular mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients. More designed studies, especially randomized controlled trials, should be conducted to determine whether high SUA levels is an independent risk factor of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients.